By: Aaron Reichlin-Melnick |americanimmigrationcouncil.org
With weeks of failed negotiations, Congress has less than 12 hours to avert a possible government shutdown. Should government funding lapse on October 1 without a deal, the impact will be felt differently across the government agencies that play a role in the immigration system.
Democratic members of the Senate have rejected House Republicans’ plan for a continuing resolution, calling for two major changes in the bill: an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire in December, and a reversal of nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act earlier this year. While negotiators are still set to meet at the last moment, a shutdown is looking increasingly likely.
In previous years, the broad impact of a shutdown on immigration has been clear ahead of time. But with the Trump administration threatening to use a shutdown to enact further changes on the federal service, as well as the unprecedented sum of $150 billion for immigration enforcement provided in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that is separate from the annual appropriations the immigration agencies already receive, there may be key differences this year.
Here’s what we know so far — with the important caveat that the Trump administration has not released any public agency-specific shutdown plans.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
The Trump administration has made expanding the work of ICE one of its top national priorities, and since taking office has poured personnel and resources into boosting the agency’s operations and ramping up arrests and deportations. Because most of ICE’s work is deemed “essential” law enforcement work, enforcement and deportation operations would continue without significant impact during a shutdown. That means that throughout the shutdown, ICE would continue the current trends and levels of immigration enforcement including arrests and raids, expansion of the rapidly growing detention system, and deportations.
Separately, the agency typically continues to maintain the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), ensuring no disruption in foreign student enrollment and maintenance of status.
In 2022, ICE estimated that during a shutdown it would have to furlough just 17% of its employees. But the impact of a shutdown on ICE in 2025 may be even more minimal. When Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July, it provided ICE with $29.9 billion for enforcement and $5 billion for detention to be spent through September 2029. This unprecedented level of funding can continue even if the broader federal government shuts down, including hiring and expansion of its workforce.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
USCIS is almost entirely funded by fees paid by immigrants, U.S. citizens, and employers paying for applications. This largely insulates USCIS from shutdowns and permits most of the agency to continue to operate as normal. Application interviews, naturalization ceremonies, biometrics processing, and similar parts of the legal immigration system should remain unchanged during a shutdown.
In 2022, USCIS estimated that only around 1% of its staff would be put on leave during a shutdown. But because USCIS is already facing high backlogs and the diversion of resources from normal adjudication to immigration enforcement, determining the direct impact of a shutdown may be challenging.
The 1% that would be put on leave would still be consequential. The Conrad 30 program, which helps bring doctors to rural America, could be suspended. But the biggest impact would be a shutdown of the E-Verify system, which is funded by Congress and provides one method for determining whether a prospective employee is legally authorized to work in the U.S.
During a shutdown, employers would be unable to access the system and would be required to manually verify I-9 documents, although USCIS may permit alternate verification processes as they have done in the past. While USCIS usually extends the period in which E-Verify compliance is required during shutdowns, there may still be impacts for federal contractors who are required to use E-Verify and employers in states which require the specific use of the E-Verify system.
Executive Office for Immigration Review
By contrast to USCIS, immigration courts—which are housed under EOIR—are almost entirely funded by Congress. They must pause most “non-essential” functions during a shutdown. During previous shutdowns, all non-detained immigration court hearings were deemed “non-essential” and suspended.
Should a shutdown drag on, this could lead to tens of thousands of cases being rescheduled, as with a previous shutdown in 2019 that caused between 80,000-94,000 cases to be put on hold. However, that shutdown came at a time when there were only 1 million pending cases and hundreds fewer immigration judges. With over 3.4 million cases currently pending, a shutdown of the non-detained docket would likely lead to even more cases paused on a daily basis than in 2019.
Detained immigration court hearings are likely to continue as normal, as they have during previous government shutdowns. With the Trump administration detaining a record number of immigrants, this suggests that they may use the opportunity to divert as many judges as they can to hearing detained cases. It is also possible that the Trump administration will deem the non-detained immigration courts “essential” as well, given their mass deportation push.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection
CBP’s law enforcement functions are deemed “essential” and will continue unaffected during a shutdown, although some support staff may be furloughed. In 2022, CBP estimated that only 8% of its employees would be put on leave during a shutdown. Despite the minimal impacts, this could lead to some delays in adjudication of certain applications filed at the border, including L-1 visas.
Like with ICE, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act funding may also provide CBP some cushion to continue operating and paying federal law enforcement officers even during a shutdown. Congress gave the agency $7 billion for Border Patrol hiring and vehicle procurement, $6.2 billion for border technology, and $2.1 billion for border processing.
U.S. Department of State
As with USCIS, State Department visa adjudication and consular services are primarily fee-funded and generally remain operational during government shutdowns. However, if there are insufficient fees to support consular services at a particular consulate or embassy, the post may limit services only to diplomatic visas and adjudication of standard applications only in “life or death” emergency situations.
Shutdown predictions
Should a shutdown occur tonight, the immigration system will be impacted significantly less than other federal agencies. Trump’s signature mass deportation efforts will proceed, perhaps taking even less of a hit than during previous shutdowns given the separate source of funding Congress gave ICE for enforcement. The legal immigration system may see minor impacts in a few areas as support staff are furloughed, but most adjudications and interviews will continue unchanged.
The largest impact of a shutdown would be on the daily operation of the nation’s non-detained immigration courts, which may be put on hold. This could have a secondary impact on ICE, as it would reduce courthouse arrests, but the agency could shift those officers to other duties such as carrying out arrests in communities — or direct officers to call in those who had scheduled court hearings for ICE check-ins and carry out arrests there.
Even if Congress does eventually reach a deal on a continuing resolution, the battle over funding for immigration will continue with the Fiscal Year 2026 funding bill, which could increase ICE funding despite the money included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.